[oman-l] Re: How about starting a more serious debate

[Abdulla Baabood]

SO. How about starting a more serious debate.

For starters here are a few questions :
1) What research and mapping is there on spatial segregation in the
greater    doneon
Musqat metropolitan area ? What analyses have been done
on the
socio-economic variables that could explain the differences in the various
quarters of the capital?

2) What can be said on the current and projected world-vision of the
Sultanate, and especially the cities, in the context ofthe  Globalization
of the economy?
How does the Sultanate see itself fitting in to the World Economy,
especially in the context of fierce competition of the Gulf States?

3) What can be said about the effects of the decline of the date-palm
oases
on the family structures of the inhabitants of the Sultanate. Are we
seeing
the emergence of a new type of family structure, with different loyalties,
with different ambitions?
                              
4) What can be said about the cosmopolitan identity of the Omani
city-dwellers, in contact with all sorts of influences, fron the Gulf to
Eastern Africa, etc. What makes the Omani cities fundamentally different
from those elsewhere?

I'm sure other questions will crop up and we will have the opportunity to
discuss them on this list.

Regards
Michael Davie



With regards to your above questions to the list, I thought I would
attempt to give my thoughts to question no 2. I do hope that others will
do so..Any comments on my thoughts below from list members are warmly
welcomed.


2) What can be said on the current and projected world-vision of the
Sultanate, and especially the cities, in the context of the  Globalization
of the economy?
How does the Sultanate see itself fitting in to the World Economy,
especially in the context of fierce competition of the Gulf States?


Oman's economy, as most of you no doubt know, is constrained by several
factors. Oman is endowed with limited hydrocarbon reserves, small
population and difficult physical environment. Agriculture is hampered by
the acute lack of water. Similarly, Oman lacks the ingredients for the
making an industrial state and enjoys no visible comparative advantage.
The economy is small and the internal market is limited. thus limiting
the scope for both local and foreign investment.


Despite that Oman is considered as one of the most stable countries in the
region and of course the most pleasant and friendly country. But that is
not enough to see the prosperity of Oman in the post-oil era. Infact, the
challenges are immense which need hard and bold response. The economic
policy of government has tried to deal with the challenges by encouraging
economic diversification and privatisation, where in some cases Oman has
been a pioneer. But constraints on the economy and the competition from
neighbouring and distant countries in the global economy has limited the
success of such policies. Oman has been trying to open the doors for
foreign investment  and has one of the most liberal investment laws, which
has shown in the increase on investment that Oman has managed to attract.
But this is still not enough. The non-oil sector, while growing is still
small and is not sustainable. The country still rely heavily on
oil revenues, despite the increased share of non-oil exports. Oman's
Vision 2020, is projected to correct the imbalance economic structure of
the country by building on the basis of past policies (diversification and
privatisation). And because this can not be achieved without the human
resource, Oman has tried to build a trained and educated workforce to
fulfil the objectives. Training and Omanisation programmes, to provide
jobs for the increasing population, have started afoot in the country.
While some of these programmes have been successful, there are still many
hurdles to overcome. The economy is still largely oi based.
Diversification and privatisation have had only limited success.
Omansation programme has, to some extent, missed the point and it is
feared that the programme is simply forcing Omanies into the private
sector without considering the needs of the this sector. The process of
which has helped in artficially reducing unemployment
among Omanies but resulted in creating under-employment in the private
sector. This could spill disaster for the Omani private sector which need
to be mean and lean in the globalised economy. Training has been partly
successful but it will improve if the education system is not revamped. A
match between the industry needs and school leavers need to be found.
Education need to go beyond the old method of reciting to acquiring craft
and technical skills. (someone on this list has mentioned that student in
the SQU do not have access to the internet is  somehow a telling point).
Technology needs to seep through the system and an overall and
comprehensive government drive to change attitude to work and work ethos
is necessary.

Oman is an observer in the WTO and is negotiating accession. It has left a
bet too late in my opinion compared to say some other Gulf states and Oman
will now have to agree to the tougher terms of the WTO. This will have a
major impact on Oman's economy where for example the costs of food imports
will increase while the Omani industry will come under severe global and
regional competition. The comfortable cushion available to industry and
agriculture in terms of subsidies will disappear over time and these
sectors will have to face the harsh realities.

Oman is a member of the GCC and now the Indian Ocean Rim. The first has
not had any major impact on Oman's economy and the later, while is still
born, has generated mixed feeling. We will have to wait and see the
latters impact on Oman's economy.


Finally, Oman or Muscat as its capital city where the concentration of
industry and business (other cities have are almost negligible at the
moment, but perhaps Sur, Sohar and Salalah could play a larger role in the
future) has had the bad luck of being geographically close to Dubai! This
could be a plessing and disguise. At the moment Dubai has overshadowed
Oman and other Gulf states in terms of attracting trade and investment.
But if Dubai could do that from the very limited base it has, why canUt
Oman with its better attribute? Oman could regain it's historical position
as a trading enterport, and given the unique natural beauty could be the
most exclusive destination in the area. Given its small but fast growing
population Oman could develop into the higher scale of science and
technology capturing value-added rather than following the existing (and
ill-fated) import substitution industrial and manufacturing policy of
others.

Oman needs to think different form the rest......need not copy others
but learn from them and be innovative... and given the limited resources,
think hard and fast...because this is a global race  and Oman must be one
of the winners.



Abdulla