[oman-l] Re: Oman's economic future

[Billyboy]

I must admit that I find it difficult to be optimistic about
the economic future of Oman.

Currently, MOST people are saying that oil/gas stocks will
not last indefinitely.  When they run out Oman will have a
problem, unless considerable diversification takes place.

The alternative scenario is that the oil will NOT run out.
This could happen for two reason.

EITHER the world community develops acceptable alternatives
energy forms/sources

OR estimates about the quantity of oil in the ground are
under-estimates, and that rumours of significant deposits at
deep depths prove to be true.

In either of these cases, the current price of oil (held
high as the output by the oil producers is restricted, but
temporarily 'low') will be seen to be far too high.  A
significant reduction in the price of oil will be difficult
to cope with.

Oman relies upon a cheap, largely Asian, ex-pat labour
force.  The Asian economies are growing (in the long term -
there seems to be a temporary decline at present).  Once the
Asian economies can offer adequate wages to their own
nationals, there seems little reason to suppose that such
people will continue to seek work in Oman.

Few Omanis will work for the wages, terms and conditions
offered to the Asian ex-pats, so Omanisation will tend to
lead to wage-increase (cost-pull) inflation.

Many Omanis are still struggling with the conflicting
demands of work and family.  Regular and punctual attendance
at work, as required by business and commerce, is not always
compatible with the traditional, social needs of the family.

The new Minister of Labour, Social Affairs and Vocational
Training has a difficult portfolio to manage, particularly
as the social and economic changes that the necessary
progress will entail will be deeply resented by significant
sections of the community.  However, he is a tough
character, who is showing that he is prepared to face up to
these many difficulties!!

Am I right?  Or am I wrong?

More debate please!!!

Toodle pip!!

Bill