[Oman-L] (no subject)

[fhuna@kansas.net]

      To The Group,


   Mr. Joshua Teitelbaum's analysis piece was a 
nice effort at presenting available information, 
but typifies the standard 'out of the box' 
or 'ivory tower' thinking that pervades the world 
of academia, and fails to penetrate or take into 
account many other important factors in Saudi-
Irano-American relations. It also falls right 
into the "Khobar Towers Blame Trap" by making the 
Islamic Republic of Iran the fall guy for the 
bombing which was precisely the intended effect 
by those responsible. One has to take into 
account the facts, which are:

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran feels it has a 
traditional right to be a regional and 
international power player and power broker. 

2. Saddam Hussein feels he has the right to 
dominate, intimidate, and control his neighbors 
to bend them to his will. 

3. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia feels it has the 
same right as the Islamic Republic, but lacks the 
military power to fully exercise it and has to 
ultimately rely on the United States for its 
military defense. 

4. Mr. Abdallah was correct in that "Wahabi" 
Sunni Muslims are only part of the Islamic 
picture within the Kingdom, and the more radical 
Wahabis are only a small but powerful cross-
section of that (group).

5. The Kingdom and the ruling elite walks a fine 
line of compromise between growing domestic 
dissatisfaction and disenchantment stemming from 
economic troubles, burgeoning population growth, 
royal family follies,ect. and the fact that every 
eye in the Muslim world lies upon them. This 
unenviable balancing act between security (having 
Westerners on their soil to save them from 
invasion by the aggressive and combative dictator 
next door), economic compromises concerning oil 
and procurement, they have to take into account 
the many dangerous radical groups who indeed 
could very easily inflict massive damage on their 
oil fields and wreck their economy overnight. 
They are scared to death of having the radical 
monsters they themselves have created, nurtured 
and sent to Russia, Afghanistan, and elsewhere 
turn around and devour them. Creating these 
monsters has accomplished their (real) foreign 
and domestic agenda for years by hiding their 
direct involvement and trying to throw the blame 
at the Iranians who stupidly tried to use 
terrorism as a foreign policy instrument to 
export their revolution. 

   Of course it would not work because there are 
simply not enough Shi'a Muslims to take over 
another country, and once the Islamic Republic 
woke up and smelled the reality they brought a 
halt to the policy. However, funding of anti-
Israeli groups continues, but the notion that 
Iran is or was formally involved in terrorism in 
other areas of the world over the past 8 or so 
years is utter nonsense. Remember that the 
Islamic Republic badly wants normalcy and 
reengagement to regain their former prestige and 
to help their economy which is in sad shape now 
and promises to get much worse. The youth 
explosion there is a very serious problem and the 
Iranians know they need to provide jobs and 
development opportunities for them lest the 
revolutionaries themselves fall upon the knife of 
another revolution. The Saudis are in a similar 
position and have to also grapple with a serious 
youth problem, but they have the additional 
burden of the 5,000 royal leeches who suck the 
blood of the state and take money away from 
societal and economic development, money which is 
needed now and which continues to fuel budgetary 
deficits which will eventually implode if not 
tended to. 

    Keeping these facts in mind, another 
important point was missed completely, that of 
oil and money. The Kingdom's economy is unduly 
reliant upon oil revenues. This means that:

1. Once Caspian oil really begins to flow, prices 
will certainly plummet.

2. If the Americans get into the Iranian fields, 
prices will drop because the they have the best 
equipment, know-how, and technology to get the 
job done better than anyone else can. 

3. Europe, China, Malaysia and others (not 
counting the UK) don't want America in the 
Iranian fields because they are making money 
there and they absolutely love our idiotic 
sanctions policy because it only prevents the US 
and no one else from doing business there. 

4. Russia wants to guarantee its piece of the 
action in the Caspian and is ready, willing, and 
able to strong-arm the Republics into 
facilitating Gazprom and Lukoil's getting 
exclusive rights on the contracts. However, Putin 
is too busy with power consolidation and 
oligarch - pleasing to do a great deal about 
Saudi led and funded terror movements even though 
they've been hit by them in Chechnya and 
Dagestan. They are also satisfied with the 
current status of sanctions and present regional 
destabilization because it puts pressure on 
European and American dollars to assist with 
channeling oil from Baku to Novorossiysk so they 
can have the pipeline on the soil of the Russian 
Federation and collect the toll on every drop 
that passes through. In the grand scheme of 
things, the physical damage done by the radicals 
is viewed as being minimal in comparison to what 
is gained with holding back Iranian and Caspian 
development that doesn't fit the Federation's 
strategic interests. 

   Therefore, many gain by allowing the Saudis to 
run rampant and unleash this evil upon the world 
and by keeping the gullible Americans focused 
on "Iranian involvement", chiefly Russia, Europe, 
China, even North Korea (who all merrily go about 
overtly and covertly selling arms to the Islamic 
Republic). 

   Domestic radical (right-wing) elements within 
the US seeking to destabilize the government, 
whose interests differ have similar goals and 
also stand to gain by:

1. Laying the blame on Muslims for terror attacks.

2. Creating more hype about the 'Zionist - Led 
New World Order" to boost membership and spread 
fear.

3. Bringing down completely the government of the 
US when "the big one hits" so they can all head 
for the hills and "live off the land".

   These fools really believe a 'New World Order' 
is coming that is going to deprive them of their 
firearms and rights and are actively preparing 
to 'head for the hills', all the while not taking 
into account the Islamic World's, Chinese, 
Russian, Indonesian, North Korean and other 
nations' tremendous military power and the 
obvious fact that none of them would acquiesce to 
a single world government without a fight, at 
least not in my lifetime. If the world can't even 
come to a concensus at the UN table, how would 
THAT work? 

   Forgive the loqautious musings, but any 
analysis or assessment should take into 
consideration ALL of these factors and then some. 
Any view without taking into account the 
interreactions and relationships between ALL 
nations in and outside of the region is 
incomplete and will not be correct. Again, Mr. 
Teitelbaum did a nice job on the paper, but was 
only dealing with information from books and the 
media and has a skewed view of regional 
realities. Further study and inquisition will 
remedy this, and I would urge him and the rest to 
continue to probe and persist in seeking 
knowledge and understanding. 

   Also, one wouldn't think so, but all of these 
events have a direct effect on the domestic and 
international affairs of Oman and the rest of the 
Middle East. Huge amounts of money have been lost 
by Middle Eastern national investments in the 
stock market, trade has suffered and unrest 
continues to grow there and throughout the region 
which unfortunately will get worse before it gets 
better.  

  Just thought I'd throw in my two cents for 
whatever its worth .....



Commentary or Criticism (Positive or Negative) is 
Always Welcomed On or Off the List

commexusa@kscable.com

All The Best,

Glenn Spiecker