[Oman-L] (no subject)

Tue, 30 Oct 2001 09:02:28 +0100

ladies and gents,
this post says exactly what i want to say and lot more even, best analysis which even the best of the top CIA's or anybody else's top guns couldn't come up with this much of clarity and objectivity..albit, perhaps still there's room for bit of disagreement.
really, well done.
abdallah
> ----------------------------------------
> From: <fhuna@kansas.net>
> Sent: Mon Oct 29 20:11:40 GMT+01:00 2001
> To: <oman-l@oman.org>
> Subject: [Oman-L] (no subject)
> 
> 
> 
>       To The Group,
> 
> 
>    Mr. Joshua Teitelbaum's analysis piece was a 
> nice effort at presenting available information, 
> but typifies the standard 'out of the box' 
> or 'ivory tower' thinking that pervades the world 
> of academia, and fails to penetrate or take into 
> account many other important factors in Saudi-
> Irano-American relations. It also falls right 
> into the "Khobar Towers Blame Trap" by making the 
> Islamic Republic of Iran the fall guy for the 
> bombing which was precisely the intended effect 
> by those responsible. One has to take into 
> account the facts, which are:
> 
> 1. The Islamic Republic of Iran feels it has a 
> traditional right to be a regional and 
> international power player and power broker. 
> 
> 2. Saddam Hussein feels he has the right to 
> dominate, intimidate, and control his neighbors 
> to bend them to his will. 
> 
> 3. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia feels it has the 
> same right as the Islamic Republic, but lacks the 
> military power to fully exercise it and has to 
> ultimately rely on the United States for its 
> military defense. 
> 
> 4. Mr. Abdallah was correct in that "Wahabi" 
> Sunni Muslims are only part of the Islamic 
> picture within the Kingdom, and the more radical 
> Wahabis are only a small but powerful cross-
> section of that (group).
> 
> 5. The Kingdom and the ruling elite walks a fine 
> line of compromise between growing domestic 
> dissatisfaction and disenchantment stemming from 
> economic troubles, burgeoning population growth, 
> royal family follies,ect. and the fact that every 
> eye in the Muslim world lies upon them. This 
> unenviable balancing act between security (having 
> Westerners on their soil to save them from 
> invasion by the aggressive and combative dictator 
> next door), economic compromises concerning oil 
> and procurement, they have to take into account 
> the many dangerous radical groups who indeed 
> could very easily inflict massive damage on their 
> oil fields and wreck their economy overnight. 
> They are scared to death of having the radical 
> monsters they themselves have created, nurtured 
> and sent to Russia, Afghanistan, and elsewhere 
> turn around and devour them. Creating these 
> monsters has accomplished their (real) foreign 
> and domestic agenda for years by hiding their 
> direct involvement and trying to throw the blame 
> at the Iranians who stupidly tried to use 
> terrorism as a foreign policy instrument to 
> export their revolution. 
> 
>    Of course it would not work because there are 
> simply not enough Shi'a Muslims to take over 
> another country, and once the Islamic Republic 
> woke up and smelled the reality they brought a 
> halt to the policy. However, funding of anti-
> Israeli groups continues, but the notion that 
> Iran is or was formally involved in terrorism in 
> other areas of the world over the past 8 or so 
> years is utter nonsense. Remember that the 
> Islamic Republic badly wants normalcy and 
> reengagement to regain their former prestige and 
> to help their economy which is in sad shape now 
> and promises to get much worse. The youth 
> explosion there is a very serious problem and the 
> Iranians know they need to provide jobs and 
> development opportunities for them lest the 
> revolutionaries themselves fall upon the knife of 
> another revolution. The Saudis are in a similar 
> position and have to also grapple with a serious 
> youth problem, but they have the additional 
> burden of the 5,000 royal leeches who suck the 
> blood of the state and take money away from 
> societal and economic development, money which is 
> needed now and which continues to fuel budgetary 
> deficits which will eventually implode if not 
> tended to. 
> 
>     Keeping these facts in mind, another 
> important point was missed completely, that of 
> oil and money. The Kingdom's economy is unduly 
> reliant upon oil revenues. This means that:
> 
> 1. Once Caspian oil really begins to flow, prices 
> will certainly plummet.
> 
> 2. If the Americans get into the Iranian fields, 
> prices will drop because the they have the best 
> equipment, know-how, and technology to get the 
> job done better than anyone else can. 
> 
> 3. Europe, China, Malaysia and others (not 
> counting the UK) don't want America in the 
> Iranian fields because they are making money 
> there and they absolutely love our idiotic 
> sanctions policy because it only prevents the US 
> and no one else from doing business there. 
> 
> 4. Russia wants to guarantee its piece of the 
> action in the Caspian and is ready, willing, and 
> able to strong-arm the Republics into 
> facilitating Gazprom and Lukoil's getting 
> exclusive rights on the contracts. However, Putin 
> is too busy with power consolidation and 
> oligarch - pleasing to do a great deal about 
> Saudi led and funded terror movements even though 
> they've been hit by them in Chechnya and 
> Dagestan. They are also satisfied with the 
> current status of sanctions and present regional 
> destabilization because it puts pressure on 
> European and American dollars to assist with 
> channeling oil from Baku to Novorossiysk so they 
> can have the pipeline on the soil of the Russian 
> Federation and collect the toll on every drop 
> that passes through. In the grand scheme of 
> things, the physical damage done by the radicals 
> is viewed as being minimal in comparison to what 
> is gained with holding back Iranian and Caspian 
> development that doesn't fit the Federation's 
> strategic interests. 
> 
>    Therefore, many gain by allowing the Saudis to 
> run rampant and unleash this evil upon the world 
> and by keeping the gullible Americans focused 
> on "Iranian involvement", chiefly Russia, Europe, 
> China, even North Korea (who all merrily go about 
> overtly and covertly selling arms to the Islamic 
> Republic). 
> 
>    Domestic radical (right-wing) elements within 
> the US seeking to destabilize the government, 
> whose interests differ have similar goals and 
> also stand to gain by:
> 
> 1. Laying the blame on Muslims for terror attacks.
> 
> 2. Creating more hype about the 'Zionist - Led 
> New World Order" to boost membership and spread 
> fear.
> 
> 3. Bringing down completely the government of the 
> US when "the big one hits" so they can all head 
> for the hills and "live off the land".
> 
>    These fools really believe a 'New World Order' 
> is coming that is going to deprive them of their 
> firearms and rights and are actively preparing 
> to 'head for the hills', all the while not taking 
> into account the Islamic World's, Chinese, 
> Russian, Indonesian, North Korean and other 
> nations' tremendous military power and the 
> obvious fact that none of them would acquiesce to 
> a single world government without a fight, at 
> least not in my lifetime. If the world can't even 
> come to a concensus at the UN table, how would 
> THAT work? 
> 
>    Forgive the loqautious musings, but any 
> analysis or assessment should take into 
> consideration ALL of these factors and then some. 
> Any view without taking into account the 
> interreactions and relationships between ALL 
> nations in and outside of the region is 
> incomplete and will not be correct. Again, Mr. 
> Teitelbaum did a nice job on the paper, but was 
> only dealing with information from books and the 
> media and has a skewed view of regional 
> realities. Further study and inquisition will 
> remedy this, and I would urge him and the rest to 
> continue to probe and persist in seeking 
> knowledge and understanding. 
> 
>    Also, one wouldn't think so, but all of these 
> events have a direct effect on the domestic and 
> international affairs of Oman and the rest of the 
> Middle East. Huge amounts of money have been lost 
> by Middle Eastern national investments in the 
> stock market, trade has suffered and unrest 
> continues to grow there and throughout the region 
> which unfortunately will get worse before it gets 
> better.  
> 
>   Just thought I'd throw in my two cents for 
> whatever its worth .....
> 
> 
> 
> Commentary or Criticism (Positive or Negative) is 
> Always Welcomed On or Off the List
> 
> commexusa@kscable.com
> 
> All The Best,
> 
> Glenn Spiecker
> 
> 
> 
>  
> 
> 
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